It marks an abrupt end to a strong period of trading for managed operators, following like-for-like growth of 3.2% in December. January’s figure is the Tracker’s lowest since April 2024, and only the second month of negative trading since early 2022.
Sales in early January were restricted by a squeeze on consumers’ spending after Christmas and widespread participation in Dry January. Footfall was also affected by Storm Éowyn, which kept people at home in many parts of the country over the last weekend of the month. The dip in sales comes as costs continue to rise for business groups—especially in labour, where National Insurance spending is set to increase substantially from April.
The Tracker—produced by CGA by NIQ in partnership with RSM UK—shows fractional growth of 0.6% in total sales, including at venues opened in the last 12 months. However, this is still below the UK’s rate of inflation of 3%, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index.
Despite Dry January, pubs performed the best of the major hospitality channels in the Tracker, with like-for-like sales down by just 0.1%. Restaurants fell 1.1% as some consumers restricted their meals out after the festive season. After briefly returning to growth in December, bars’ sales fell away in January to finish 10.2% behind January 2024. The on-the-go segment of the market dropped 4.8%.
London had a slightly tougher January than the rest of the country, the Tracker shows. Groups’ sales inside the M25 were down by 1.9% year-on-year, while venues beyond the M25 were 1.1% behind.
Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “After a happy Christmas for hospitality groups and their suppliers, trading came back down to earth with a bump in January. It shows many consumers remain hesitant about their spending, and while inflation has eased in some areas, business costs remain very high across the sector, and energy price rises and the government’s planned changes to National Insurance thresholds and rates could hardly be coming at a worse time. Hospitality’s outlook is positive in the long run, but it deserves much better support than it is currently getting”
Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “Concerns about consumers cutting back on discretionary hospitality spending were realised in January, with negative like-for-likes sales across almost all segments of the market and particularly pronounced in London. Against a backdrop of rising energy and food costs, and with payroll outgoings set to increase significantly for operators in April, these results will sadly be another nail in the coffin for some.
However, the medium-term forecast offers cause for cautious optimism. Real wage growth is at its highest in years, and interest rates are set to fall further in 2025. Operators that can weather the next few months will be well positioned to recover lost ground and take advantage of a more favourable trading environment in the year ahead”.
CGA by NIQ collected sales figures directly from 113 leading managed groups for January’s edition of the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, which provides authoritative monthly insights into Britain’s restaurant, pub and bar sales. Companies participating in the Tracker receive a fuller breakdown of trading that helps to benchmark performance and understand market trends. To join the cohort, contact Andrew Dean at andy.dean@nielseniq.com
Participants in the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker: Adventure Leisure Ltd, All Star Lanes, Amber Taverns, Anglian Country Inns, Arc Inspirations, Azzurri Group (Ask Italian, Coco di Mama, Zizzi), , Barburrito, Barworks, Beds and Bars, Big Fang Collective, Big Table Group (Banana Tree Restaurants, Bella Italia, Chiquito, Frankie & Benny’s, Las Iguanas), Bill’s Restaurants, Boom Battle Bar, Boston Tea Party, Boxpark, BrewDog, Burger & Lobster, Buzzworks Holdings Group, Byron, Chance and Counters, Chopstix, Coaching Inn Group Ltd, Comptoir Group Plc, Cote Restaurants, Creams Café, D & D London, Darwin & Wallace, Dishoom, Five Guys, Fortnum & Mason, Fuller Smith & Turner, Gaucho Grill, Giggling Squid, Glendola Leisure, Greene King (Chef & Brewer, Hungry Horse, Flaming Grill), Gusto Restaurants, Hall & Woodhouse, Hawthorn Leisure, Heartwood Collection, Honest Burgers, HOP Vietnamese, Individual Restaurants, Junkyard Golf Club, Kibou, Laine Pub Co, Le Bistrot Pierre, Liberation, Lina Stores, Loungers, Lucky Voice, Marston’s, McMullen & Sons Ltd, Mildreds, Mission Mars, Mitchells & Butlers (Harvester, Toby, Miller & Carter, All Bar One), MJMK Restaurants, Mojo Bar, Mowgli, Nando’s Restaurants, Neos Hospitality, New World Trading Company, Nightcap Plc, North Brewing Co, NQ64 Arcade Bars, Oakman Inns, Parogon Pub Group, Peach Pubs, Pho, Pizza Express, Pizza Hut UK, Popeyes, Portobello Starboard Ltd, Prezzo, Punch Pub Co, Revolution Bars, Rick Stein Restaurants, Riley’s, Rosa’s Thai, Roxy Leisure, San Carlo, Shepherd Neame, Simmons Bars Group, Snug Bar, Southern Wind Group (Fazenda), St Austell, Star Pubs & Bars, State of Play Hospitality, Stonegate Pub Co (Slug & Lettuce, Yates’, Walkabout, Bermondsey Pub Company), Tasty Plc, TGI Fridays UK, The Alchemist, The Restaurant Group, Thunderbird Fried Chicken, Tonkotsu, Topgolf Ltd, Tortilla, Treetop Golf, True North Brew Co, Turtle Bay, Upham Pub Co, Urban Pubs & Bars, Various Eateries (Strada, Coppa Club), Village Hotels, Wagamama, Wasabi, Wells & Co, Whitbread (Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table), Wingstop, YO! Sushi, Young’s and Yummy Collection.
