The exclusive report shows a 0.5% increase in the number of licensed premises between March and June 2024—equivalent to 462 net new openings, or five per day. It is the first such increase since mid-2022 and only the third since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Second-quarter growth was even across the different sectors of hospitality and extended to the independent segment, where numbers increased by 0.5% to end several years of sustained closures caused by severe cost and COVID-related pressures.
The upward trend is in line with other positive indicators from 2024, including solid growth in sales as measured by CGA by NIQ’s Trackers, plus an easing of inflation and household bills. However, while quarter-on-quarter movements are positive, longer-term comparisons are weaker, with outlet numbers down by 1.0% or 969 from June 2023. Britain’s total sites are still 13.8% below the pre-COVID figure of March 2020.
The latest Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA and AlixPartners highlights particularly positive developments in the casual dining sector. After a rapid expansion of managed chain restaurants in the 2000s and 2010s, there were 6,696 casual dining sites at March 2020—but COVID-19 and high inflation then saw the segment slashed by 24.1% to 5,082 sites by June 2023—a total of 1,611 net closures or just over one per day. However, the figure has risen by 1.7% in the last 12 months, with an average of three net new sites a week in the first six months of 2024.
Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA, said: “These numbers are a welcome sign of the confidence of business leaders and investors in hospitality. While it’s too early to be sure that hospitality’s downward trend in outlets has bottomed out, alongside solid sales growth over the first half of 2024 these figures indicate the brightest outlook for the sector for some time. Cost pressures mean thousands of businesses remain fragile and millions of consumers’ discretionary spending continues to be tight, and hospitality may never fully return to its pre-COVID size in outlet terms—but it’s clear that it is now back on a much surer path.”
Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA, said: “These numbers are a welcome sign of the confidence of business leaders and investors in hospitality. While it’s too early to be sure that hospitality’s downward trend in outlets has bottomed out, alongside solid sales growth over the first half of 2024 these figures indicate the brightest outlook for the sector for some time. Cost pressures mean thousands of businesses remain fragile and millions of consumers’ discretionary spending continues to be tight, and hospitality may never fully return to its pre-COVID size in outlet terms—but it’s clear that it is now back on a much surer path.”
Graeme Smith, Managing Director at AlixPartners, said: “It is pleasing to see that with the easing of pressure around labour shortages, food and drink inflation and high energy prices, the Hospitality Market Monitor’s latest figures show the industry has responded with a return to outlet growth across the sector in the second quarter of this year. It’s especially encouraging to see such significant growth in the themed bar segment – a segment that includes both competitive socialising venues and bars with a particular theme – with a growth rate of 28.9% over the last 12 months. This has been driven by the continued popularity of experiential leisure and the demand from consumers to elevate their experiences when socialising out of home.
“The return to outlet growth reflects the stabilisation of the market and paints a more positive picture for businesses and investors alike, with this growth acting as a marker for the recovery of the industry. We expect to see this growth develop as confidence continues to rise in the second half of the year.”
The Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners provides exclusive quarterly analysis of the licensed sector across Britain, with breakdowns of openings and closures by region, channel, tenure and more. Its expert analysis of trends and developments helps operators, suppliers and investors assess opportunities and challenges across the sector. Download the full report here.
