Exclusive research for the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s 2025 Annual Convention in Las Vegas revealed some of the key developments and biggest opportunities for brand owners and venues to seize. Here are ten of the takeaways from Andrew Hummel, Director of On Premise Beverage Alcohol Vertical, North America, and Kaleigh Theriault, Director of Beverage Alcohol Thought Leadership.
1 Beer shows consistent performance in a competitive landscape
Beer / FMB / cider velocity across the On and Off Premise is now touching 12 figures, having reached $99 billion in the latest year. This means the category attracts 45 cents in every dollar spent on alcohol in the US, reflecting beer’s continued relevance in the broader beverage alcohol landscape. Its strong performance is supported by high penetration and consumption: 59% of On Premise consumers purchase it in venues at least monthly, ahead of the wine (50%) and spirit categories (43%).
2 Imports up, domestic premium down
There’s growing interest in imported brands. Despite challenging systemic conditions, sales of these rose 1.3% year-on-year. Growth was partly at the expense of domestic premium brands, which dropped 4.7%—though this remains the second biggest segment. Craft was another category under pressure, dropping 6.6% year-on-year, but domestic super-premium rose 3.2%.
3 Channel balance matters
The full view of the BevAl market shows a virtually even split of dollars, or share of wallet, between the On Premise (49%) and Off Premise (51%). This highlights the need to optimize strategies across both universes and tailor approaches to different channels within each. It’s also important to remember that the two feed off each other, with consumers’ discovery of brands in the On Premise quickly translating into Off Premise sales as well.
4 On Premise slightly more resilient
There’s been a year-on-year drop of 1.0% in total alcohol sales in the On Premise over the last year, compared to a 1.6% dip in the Off Premise. Recent trends in bars and restaurants have been encouraging, with value velocity and check counts slightly outperforming 2024 levels through most of 2025. Positive On Premise trends are partly the result of higher prices, which have risen 2.2% year-on-year compared to 1.8% in the Off Premise.
5 There are myths about moderation…
Moderation is a significant trend, but it’s far more complex than simply cutting intake. In fact, the large majority of consumers are consistent in their habits. Exclusive research for the NBWA found nearly three quarters (72%) of On Premise beer drinkers are consuming more or the same amount as they were last year. This is even higher among 21- to 34-year-olds, which busts the media myth that younger adults are swerving alcohol. The reality of consumption may be different from perceptions, as fewer than one in five (19%) think their friends and family are drinking less than they were a year ago, while 21% think they are consuming more. On top of that, because consumers don’t approach all categories the same when relating to moderation, beer is also better insulated against the trend than higher-alcohol segments like spirits.
6 … And ‘switches’ aren’t what they seem
Another misconception is that GLP1 and THC consumption is cutting people’s alcohol intake. In reality, the two meet very different need states and spending occasions, and just 7% of moderators have switched to cannabis products. Pressure on disposable incomes and health are much more important drivers of reducing BevAl spend.
7 Non-alcoholic beer surging
A beneficial effect of moderation is growth in the no-alcoholic segment. While this is still a relatively small part of the market, with 1.2% of total category revenues, sales have soared by 24.4% year-over-year to pass the billion-dollar mark for the first time.
8 Polarization boosting both premium and value
There’s a widening split in consumers’ spending habits, between those who are ready to trade up to high quality brands and those who are focusing on value. Mid-tier beer offerings are meanwhile being squeezed in the middle and losing share. This means portfolios need to stay closely tuned to pricing trends and adapt fast. At the premium end, it’s particularly important to avoid simply elevating all beverages to a premium level, and instead to work with operators to ensure there are still plenty of opportunities to trade up.
9 Draft outpacing packaged
One of beer’s most significant On Premise trends of recent years has been the resilience of draft sales compared to packaged products. This dynamic is particularly apparent in the craft and domestic beer segments, and it’s essential for operators and suppliers to collaborate on draft strategies that differentiate venues and beers brand. In the packaged sector, cans continue to lead, with a 66% share of sales compared to 34% for bottles. There are important nuances by age, with younger consumers tending to prefer packaged beer and older ones more likely to opt for draft.
10 Growth in neighborhood bars
After facing sustained pressures, neighborhood bars have emerged as an On Premise bright spot, with the number of operating outlets increasing by 1.5% over the past year. These venues also have a highly engaged visitor profile, with an average monthly alcohol spend of $95, compared to $91 among all consumers.
NIQ provides a unique full view of the total BevAl market, with outstanding insights into trends across the On Premise and Off Premise. The suite of services delivers deep analysis of beer and all other categories, helping suppliers, distributors, and operators understand latest spending behaviors and seize emerging opportunities. get in touch with an NIQ expert here.
