It is the 16th consecutive month of decline, providing further relief for businesses and consumers after several years of high inflation. October also recorded month-on-month deflation of -0.4%, with prices falling in six of the Index’s ten categories. In year-on-year terms, Fish was the only category to experience deflation, while Vegetables and Sugar, Jam, Syrups & Chocolate continued to report the highest inflation.
While the short-term trend is positive, the government’s recent Autumn Budget has introduced significant uncertainty into the outlook for foodservice prices in 2025. The Foodservice Price Index report projects that the Budget measures will add +2.3% to the previously forecasted rate of inflation. If additional wage and National Insurance costs are passed up the supply chain in full, food and drink inflation could rise sharply again next year and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis.
Shaun Allen, CEO of Prestige Purchasing, said: “While the continued easing of year-on-year inflation is encouraging, the potential impact of the Autumn Budget is a serious concern. The foodservice sector is still grappling with ongoing volatility, and the possibility of further significant price increases in 2025 adds another layer of complexity. Operators need to remain vigilant and closely monitor the market to manage these additional challenges effectively.”
Reuben Pullan, Senior Insight Consultant at CGA by NIQ, said: “Sixteen successive months of inflation decline has brought welcome respite for hospitality ahead of the crucial Christmas and New Year period. However, the Budget’s new burden on employers threatens the fragile recovery and will undermine the confidence of both businesses and consumers. This is a resilient and entrepreneurial sector with a bright long-term future, but cost pressures are likely to make for a difficult trading environment for some time to come.”
Reuben Pullan, Senior Insight Consultant at CGA by NIQ, said: “Sixteen successive months of inflation decline has brought welcome respite for hospitality ahead of the crucial Christmas and New Year period. However, the Budget’s new burden on employers threatens the fragile recovery and will undermine the confidence of both businesses and consumers. This is a resilient and entrepreneurial sector with a bright long-term future, but cost pressures are likely to make for a difficult trading environment for some time to come.”
The exclusive Foodservice Price Index is jointly produced by Prestige Purchasing and CGA by NIQ, using foodservice data drawn from 10.7m transactions per month. It contains myriad insights and information pertinent to the foodservice sector and is essential reading for anyone seeking to keep ahead of price trends and understand why they occur. More information on specific categories is available on a subscription basis. For further information, contact Prestige Purchasing on 01908 222678 or stuart.read@prestige-purchasing.com.
Visit the new Foodservice Price Index Digital Portal. The new online hub gives users on-demand access to accurate pricing data, with an array of features to interpret trends and improve decision-making. Find out more: https://prestige-purchasing.com/foodservice-price-index-fpi/
