Countdown to the holidays: Festive trends predict a happy new year for the US On Premise

Thanksgiving

39% of On Premise consumers planned to visit the On Premise for Thanksgiving this year. Thanksgiving Day itself (Thursday November 28) saw a reduction in the number of outlets open (-51% vs the previous week). Those that kept their doors open performed well, with velocity for the average US outlet up +88% compared to the week before. Growth was driven by a triple-digit increase (+176%) in average check values, while traffic was unsurprisingly down -32%. The week leading up to Thanksgiving saw double-digit uplifts compared to the week prior, with the average US outlet earning +36% more on November 27 than on the previous Wednesday.

Future visitation to the On Premise during key holiday events looks promising. 3 in 5 consumers are likely, or very likely, to visit the On Premise during the Christmas period. A further 47% are planning to visit venues to celebrate the turn of the New Year.

Christmas

Unsurprisingly, weekend trends in the middle of December saw greater than average velocities last year. Friday December 15 was the most valuable Friday of 2023 for the average US outlet performing with a +23% uplift compared to the average Friday of the year.

The days immediately prior to Christmas (18-21 December) were also valuable, experiencing double-digit driven by increases in both check values and ticket counts. Both the Drinking and Eating markets performed well over this time, with Eating outlets performing especially well compared to the average days of the week in 2023.

Comparing to the holiday period of the year before, early December saw generally flat or slightly positive trends. Mid-month, Saturday 16 December and Sunday 17 December experienced uplifts of +15% and +31% respectively.  This was driven primarily by increased performance within Drinking outlets. The run-up to Christmas also saw strong On Premise sales in 2023, with 21-23 December experiencing double-digit increases in velocity compared to the same days of the week in 2022. Increased ticket counts on Friday 22 December led to velocity trends +33% higher than the same Friday in 2022.

New Year’s Eve

For the average outlet, New Year’s Eve was the most valuable day in December 2023. The occasion saw a velocity uplift of +52% compared to the average Sunday of that year, resulting in it being the second most valuable Sunday of the whole year, falling only behind Mother’s Day. Both ticket counts (up +27%) and check values (+20%) experienced an uplift. Drinking (+37%) and Eating (+53%) outlets both performed well, with Fine Dining (+130%) restaurants experiencing the highest uplift within Eating outlets, and Neighborhood Bars (+80%) performing best within Drinking venues.

Compared to NYE 2022, 31 December saw velocity uplifts of +6%, influenced by increases in both traffic (+5%) and average check value (+1%). These trends are driven by performances within Eating outlets, while Drinking outlets were slightly negative compared to New Year’s Eve 2022.

 “The holiday period has always carried enormous weight in the On Premise, and this year promises to be no exception to the trend. Drinks brands, suppliers and operators are naturally keen to seize the once-a-year opportunities for sales optimization and brand equity that can last long after the sparkle of the season has faded,” says Matt Crompton, CGA by NIQ VP – On Premise Americas. “CGA’s fusion of sales measurement and consumer research is the ideal basis for building winning strategies.”

The US Impact Reports are purpose-designed to support drinks brands, suppliers, and operators keep a pulse on the industry by featuring current insights derived from a variety of our best-in-class data tools. Click here for more information about how  to access the full Impact Report series, or contact the experts to explore On Premise solutions tailored to your needs