The Tracker—produced by CGA by NielsenIQ in partnership with TheCoffer Group and RSM UK—has now recorded year-on-year growth (14.7%) for four months in a row. January’s figure is also marginally ahead of the current 10.1% rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index.
However, trading in January benefited from comparisons with early 2022, when some consumers stayed at home amid concerns about the Omicron variant of COVID. High inflation means sales continue to lag pre-pandemic levels in real terms.
Pubs carried the momentum they built over Christmas into 2023, with like-for-like sales 12.9% ahead of January 2022. Restaurant groups’ growth also reached double digits at 10.3%, but sales in the bars segment were down 3.1%.
The Coffer CGA Business Tracker indicates a very strong month in London, as office workers and visitors continued their return to the capital. January sales within the M25 were 19.9% ahead of 2022—more than twice the growth of 8.8% outside the M25.
Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NielsenIQ, said: “These figures show consumers remain eager to eat and drink out despite the mounting pressure on disposable incomes. It’s particularly pleasing to see such a strong bounce back in London, where sales have been hit harder than in other cities by COVID disruption. Optimism for 2023 must be tempered by ongoing concerns about fragile consumer confidence and the debilitating inflation that businesses face in energy, food, labour and other key costs. But while hospitality faces challenges in the months ahead, it remains a dynamic sector with a bright long-term future.”
Mark Sheehan, managing director at Coffer Corporate Leisure, said: “These numbers are despite train strikes hitting trade severely. Consumers and workers have worked around strikes and trade is shown resilience. Like-for-likes are still difficult, but consumers continue to return to eating and drinking out despite economic pressures. “
Paul Newman, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “After 15 consecutive months of like-for-like sales growth failing to beat inflation, these results represent a significant turning point for the sector even if the comparative period was somewhat subdued due to omicron concerns. This growth underscores the resourcefulness of operators to adapt their January offering to cater to the increasingly popular Veganuary and Dry January campaigns, whilst managing the well-versed cost pressures that the sector is facing. These results will be a welcome confidence booster to an industry that has been in desperate need of some good news and will hopefully herald the start of a sustained period of stronger trading.”
CGA collected sales figures directly from 79 leading companies for the latest edition of the Coffer CGA Business Tracker.
Participating companies receive a fuller detailed breakdown of monthly trading. To join the cohort, contact Andrew Dean at andrew.dean@cgastrategy.com
About the Coffer CGA Business Tracker
Participants include: Adventure Bars, All Star Lanes, Amber Taverns, Anglian Country Inns, Azzurri Group (Ask Italian, Zizzi), Banana Tree Restaurants, Barkby Pub Co, Beds and Bars, Big Table Group (Bella Italia, Las Iguanas), Bill’s Restaurants, Bone Daddies, Brasserie Bar Co, BrewDog, Buzzworks Holdings Group, Byron, Cityglen Pub Co, Coaching Inn Group Ltd, Comptoir Group, Cote Restaurants, Dishoom, Dominion Hospitality, East London Pub Co, Five Guys, Fortnum & Mason, Fuller Smith & Turner, Gaucho Grill, Giggling Squid, Greene King (Chef & Brewer, Hungry Horse, Flaming Grill), Gusto Restaurants, Hall & Woodhouse, Hawthorn Leisure, Honest Burgers, Individual Restaurants, Junkyard Golf Club, Kibou Restaurants, Laine Pub Co, Le Bistrot Pierre, Liberation, Loungers, Marston’s, McMullen & Sons Ltd, Mitchells & Butlers (Harvester, Toby, Miller & Carter, All Bar One), Mowgli, Nando’s Restaurants, New World Trading Company, North Brewing Co, Oakman Inns, Parogon Pub Group, Peach Pubs, Pho, Pizza Express, Pizza Hut UK, Portobello Starboard, Prezzo, Punch Pub Co, Rekom UK, Restaurant Group (Frankie & Bennys, Chiquitos, Brunning & Price), Revolution Bars, Riley’s, Rosa’s Thai, Shepherd Neame, Snug Bar, Southern Wind Group (Fazenda), St Austell, Star Pubs & Bars, State of Play Hospitality, Stonegate Pub Co (Slug & Lettuce, Yates’, Walkabout, Bermondsey Pub Company), Tattu, TGI Fridays UK, The Alchemist, Tonkotsu, True North Brew Co, Upham Pub Co, Various Eateries (Strada, Coppa Club), Wagamama, Wasabi, Whitbread (Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table), YO! Sushi and Young’s.
